Politically Motivated Prosecutions in Q1 2026

While the first quarter of 2026 saw a marginal decline in newly documented cases of politically motivated persecution, the reality is far from a reprieve. We are witnessing what can be described as a ‘repressive plateau’: the scale of state pressure remains effectively constant, with approximately 500 individuals facing criminal proceedings every quarter.

The slight dip in numbers this spring is attributable to two specific factors rather than a change in policy. Firstly, the ‘Kursk factor’ has nearly reached exhaustion; the initial wave of criminal charges against Ukrainian servicemen captured in the Kursk region has passed, and these cases no longer fluctuate the general statistics. Secondly, a simple calendar factor, the extended New Year holidays, resulted in a temporary drop in the reporting of new cases.

Our latest analysis tracks three distinct trajectories of repression:

1. Russia within its internationally recognised borders

We have documented a substantial rise in prosecutions related to the freedom of association. This includes a sharp increase in charges under Article 282.2 (organising and participating in the activities of an extremist organisation) and Article 282.3 (financing extremist activity).

The campaign against ACF donors and Jehovah’s Witnesses remains particularly acute:

— ACF Donations: 44 cases were documented in Q1 2026 alone, compared to 90 for the entirety of 2025. Many of these cases only come to light at the point of sentencing.

— Jehovah’s Witnesses: 39 individuals were targeted this quarter, nearly matching the 51 cases seen across the whole of last year. New group cases have emerged in regions ranging from Bashkortostan to Nizhny Novgorod.

2. The Occupied Territories

The level of repression in the occupied territories of Ukraine remains several times higher than in Russia itself when measured per capita. Even accounting for the recent statistical fluctuations, the intensity of persecution against the local population shows no signs of retreat.

3. Ukrainian Military Personnel

Although the specific campaign regarding the Kursk captures is drawing to a close, the volume of cases against Ukrainian servicemen has not returned to pre-Kursk levels. Instead, we are seeing the systematic prosecution of other groups of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

Whether the current dip in headline figures is a temporary statistical fluctuation or the beginning of a new trend remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the machinery of political prosecution continues to operate at a relentless pace.

Read the full, in-depth review of politically motivated criminal prosecutions for Q1 2026 here.